Project Description

WAM Forecast

This service is a contribute to the studies on the reliability of climate projections and future precipitation changes, in the Sahel Sudan area.

This Ibimet Service provides a monthly seasonal forecast based on different methodologies, in the areas of Sahel.

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Type of Service

Last updates of the on-going development and validation activities along with real-time forecast. Seasonal forecast of the Sudan-Sahel (10°W – 10°E, 9°N – 18°N) monsoonal rainfall uses a multi-linear regression method applied to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) in the Tropics. Latest updates of the on-going development and validation activities along with real-time forecast. Seasonal forecast of the Sudan-Sahel (10°W – 10°E, 9°N – 18°N) monsoon rainfall uses a multi-linear regression method applied to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) in the Tropics.

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The JAS rainfall in the Sudan-Sahel region is well correlated with the SSTA in the Equatorial Atlantic in OND, in the South Atlantic in NDJ, and in the West Indian in JFM. We use these 3 sub-basins as predictors for the JAS amount of the Sudan-Sahel monsoon rainfall, in a lagged multi-linear regression analysis. The probability of detection (POD) is 1.00 for wet events, 0.67 for normal events and 0.80 for dry events.

The set of predictors becomes fully available within 4 months: in January the SSTA in the Gulf of Guinea, in February the South Atlantic, and in April the West Indian. We, therefore, provide the forecast in 3 steps, adding each predictor when it becomes available, having outlooks in January and February, and the final forecast in April.

The Context

Sahel is a semi-arid region on the southern edge of the Sahara desert, and it is considered particularly vulnerable to natural climate variability.

DISCLAIMER

Seasonal forecasting methodologies and results presented in these pages have to be considered as experimental products, derived from innovative procedures and algorithms, that need to be further validated and improved.

IBIMET CNR is not responsible for any damage deriving from the utilisation of these products. The diffusion and use of the information contained on this site are subjected to the approval of IBIMET CNR.