In Italy, the large lakes in the first decade of April are at a standstill, ranging from around 23% for Lake Como to approximately 44% for Lake Maggiore and Idro, with Lake Garda continuing to be the one with values closest to historical lows for the period.

The Po River flow is below average with levels ranging from severe to extreme and at Pontelagoscuro, the values below which the river has difficulty in repelling the entry of the sea have been exceeded. Many of the Po’s tributaries and the Piave River also end the month with negative flow values compared to the averages.

Regarding snow, as of March 23rd, the snow water equivalent index values ​​related to the Po basin were only slightly higher than those of the previous 2021-2022 season (CIMA Foundation data), but still well below 50% of the average.

In Piedmont, the region most affected by this drought, the levels of the shallow aquifers monitored by ARPA have been in a critical situation for almost a year.

Finally, the values ​​of hydroelectric energy stored by the northern power plants continue to be among the lowest since 2016, although, in the weeks of March, there was a slight increase compared to the corresponding values ​​of 2022 (ENTSO-E data).

Forecasts for the next months: Regarding the temperatures of the May-July quarter, almost all European meteorological centres agree that there is a probability of between 50 and 60% of above-average values ​​across Europe. In northern Italy, this percentage rises to 70%. As for rainfall, the signal indicates values ​​that should be within the norm, considering, however, that the last month for quantitatively “useful” precipitation is May.

Read the full Bulletin»

The post Drought Bulletin March 2023 appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

The study surveyed communities in Niger and was conducted within the framework of the ANADIA project implemented by the National Meteorological Direction (NMD) of Niger. The results highlight that seasonal forecasts helped farmers make decisions about planting and harvesting crops, as well as managing livestock. For example, farmers were able to select the best sowing date for crops and plan for the return of livestock during transhumance.

Within the examined regions, 73.6% of individuals receive agroclimatic information, including comparisons between years, anomalies, long-term trends, climate projections, and seasonal forecasts. Almost all individuals (99%) receive meteorological information, which includes hourly and weekly weather forecasts.

According to the survey, 94.3% of respondents consider the information to be highly pertinent to the community’s needs. However, only 65.4% confirm that they receive helpful advice. Most respondents prioritize fundamental sectors such as agriculture and food security (77%), livestock (58%), health (49%), water resource management (44%), and disaster reduction (43%).

After attending the community awareness workshops on the use of climatic information, 82% of the populations surveyed in the eight municipalities of the study area reported changes in their habits and practices, while 18% continued with their usual way of doing things. Agricultural practice modifications are connected to various factors such as the timing of sowing, the variety of seeds employed, the areas for cultivation, and the methods of farming.

The release of agroclimatic information led to market speculation, with prices for agricultural products and livestock fluctuating depending on the projected configuration. However, despite these fluctuations, farmers were able to use the information to their advantage and reduce the risk of disaster, particularly floods and droughts. This led to fewer losses of human and animal lives and minimized the destruction of infrastructure.

The communities in Niger had a good understanding of the indicators of a good or bad season and had developed coping strategies to deal with climate adversities. For example, in a bad season with seasonal rainfall deficits, farmers used strategies such as selecting drought-resistant crops and focusing on animal husbandry.

The study highlights the need for a review of the climate information dissemination mechanism in the area, as only 10% of the population has access to information on seasonal forecasts of agroclimatic conditions. This review is crucial for building the resilience of communities to climate variability and change. Nonetheless, the study concludes that agrohydroclimatic early warning information can be a valuable tool for farmers in Niger and other regions affected by climate variability. To this end, it recommends strengthening agricultural policies and support for the farming sector to ensure that farmers have the resources and tools they need to adapt to changing climate conditions.

Read the full article » 

The post Are climate information key to reducing drought and flood risks? appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

An overview of the European situation

2023 opens on the heels of over a year of drought and record temperatures not only in Italy but in several European countries. At the end of January, the percentage of European territory affected by severe to extreme rainfall deficits is still present, especially in the east, as well as the stress due to evapotranspiration, which is once again particularly strong in the northwest and Adriatic part of the Po Valley in Italy. Due to the lack of rainfall and above-average temperatures, the large lakes and major rivers in the north, including the Po, which continues to be below last year’s levels, are still suffering.

The snow scarcity

The snowfall at the end of the month, after several weeks, is not enough to reach the average values of the decade from 2011 to 2021, especially in the Alps, while the amount was much more significant in the central regions after almost a total absence in December (source: CIMA Foundation). A stock of snow that is essential to supply rivers and lakes with water in the hottest seasons, but which is still not enough to make up for the deficit created in the previous season.

Above-average temperatures and rainfall deficit

An indication of the rapid evolution of surface soil moisture and crop stress conditions is the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), which measures standardized temporal anomalies in the ratio between actual and potential evapotranspiration. The index values, calculated for short time periods (e.g., 4 weeks), provide indications of rapid changes, while longer time aggregations (e.g., 12 weeks) represent slower changes.  The Evaporative Stress Index related to the process of evapotranspiration of bare soil and vegetation during the four weeks from the end of December to the second decade of January shows that above-average temperatures (excluding the last few days of the month, when there were snowfalls and therefore lower temperatures) continue to combine negatively with the rainfall deficit, even though, compared to the values accumulated over 12 weeks (from November to January 22), the area affected in central-southern Italy and the central Po Valley is lower.

North Italy exposure to drought

At the regional level, the north is in the grip of drought. A drought that dates back to 2021 and that the recent rainfall has not yet been able to fill, as it has been concentrated mainly in central and southern Italy. Almost half of the Piedmontese territory is still affected by severe to extreme long-term rainfall deficits, other northern regions are also around 30% (almost 45% in Valle d’Aosta), and Emilia Romagna is around 20%. The largest areas exposed to severe to extreme long-term drought are the agricultural land, the irrigated crops, the rice paddies, and the pastures. Over the long and the very long term, respectively, 6% and 15% of the population could still be exposed to severe to extreme drought. The percentages rise up to 30% and 35% if considering the moderate drought.

The post Drought Observatory Bulletin Jannuary 2023 appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

Credit: European Union, Copernicus Emergency Management Service

According to the EU’s environmental programme Copernicus, the 2022 drought may be the worst Europe has experienced in 500 years. Scientific research also tells us that this is not a sporadic phenomenon but an ongoing trend leading to warmer and drier seasons that are likely to become the norm. In this context, information sharing and shared knowledge are supportive tools to improve better management of the impacts of drought. CNR-IBE contributes with a dedicated service and a specific training course.

Drought @ CNR-IBE

One of the research teams at the CNR-IBE focuses on drought research and delivers service through the Drought Observatory, a system providing a semi-automatic, detailed, timely and complete operational service. The aim is to support decision-makers, water authorities, researchers and other stakeholders through a monthly bulletin and a dedicated WebGIS.

Moreover, the WMO’s Regional Training Centre Italy, run by CNR-IBE, developed a course on “Drought Management and Forecasting Basics” in the framework of TOPaCS (Training Operational Package for Climate Services).

This course proposes a set of introductory lessons given by internationally recognised experts.

• Drought Management and Forecasting, Christel Prudhomme – Centre for Ecology & Hydrology – Loughborough University, NERC Centre for Environment
• Drought Monitoring and Seasonal Forecasting, Ramona Magno – Institute of BioEconomy, National Research Council (IBE-CNR)
• Assessment of Water Balances and Optimisation based Target Setting Across EU River Basin, Tommaso Moramarco – Research Institute for Hydrogeological Protection, National Research Council (CNR-IRPI)
• About Drought: the role of scientists in responding to users’ needs for drought management, Massimiliano Pasqui
• Institute of BioEconomy, National Research Council (IBE-CNR)

Here is the short video presentation of the course.

Credits of the featured image of this post: European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-2 imagery acquired on 2 February 2022 by one of the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites, shows the Po River near Cremona in northern Italy.

The post Learning Drought Basics appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

– José Manuel Duarte da Costa, Head of the Portuguese Civil Protection,
– Nuno Banza, President of the Board of the Institute of Nature Conservation and Forestry and coordinator of the OND, Observatório Nacional da Desertificação,
– Ramona Magno, Head of the Drought Observatory of the Bioeconomy Institute of the National Research Council
– Maria Luisa Cinquerrui, CEO Smartisland Group
– Micael Couceiro, CEO of Ingeniarius.

The Panelists Nuno Banza and ramona Magno highlighted “the need for a paradigm shift to focus action on drought risk management rather than its consequences” (cit. ANSA).

Watch the video

The post Italy and Portugal discuss about drought appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

The post Drought Observatory: August Bulletin appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.