Under the coordination of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR), through its Institute for BioEconomy (CNR-IBE), and the LaMMA Consortium — the operational meteorological service of the Tuscany Region — an international meeting titled “International Cooperation in Applied Meteorology for Reducing Hydroclimatic Risks” has been held in Florence, Italy, on 14 October 2025. The event brings together representatives of Italian and African meteorological services, researchers, international organizations, and cooperation agencies to share experiences, consolidate partnerships, and discuss future directions for operational forecasting in the region.

As highlighted by CNR, “Climate change and natural disasters represent a common challenge at all latitudes.” This shared challenge requires joint scientific action, capacity building, and knowledge exchange. For more than forty years, CNR has been engaged in research, technology transfer and training  — through the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Training Centre in Italy (WMO-RTC Italy) — in Africa promoting collaboration and co-development in meteorology, climatology, and agrometeorology.

The Florence meeting showcases this long-standing cooperation, particularly through projects such as SLAPIS Sahel, funded by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS) and implemented by the Politecnico di Torino, CNR-IBE, LaMMA, and the national meteorological services of Niger and Burkina Faso. The initiative focuses on improving operational meteorological forecasting chains and developing hydrometeorological early-warning services adapted to local contexts. It also invests in human capacity — training African forecasters, modellers, and IT specialists both in Italy and in their home countries — to ensure that advanced tools like the MOLOCH and WRF models can be effectively used for real-time weather prediction.

Beyond its scientific dimension, the event symbolizes a broader vision of international cooperation: building resilience together, across continents, through shared knowledge and trust. It includes the signing of new collaboration agreements between the Italian and African institutions, reaffirming the commitment to long-term partnerships that go beyond project cycles.

As LaMMA emphasizes, “operational meteorology and international cooperation go hand in hand when it comes to protecting lives and livelihoods.” By pooling expertise and resources, Italy, Niger and Burkina Faso are contributing to a global effort to make meteorological services more accurate, inclusive, and impactful.

At a time when climate extremes are increasing everywhere, initiatives like this one highlight how joint scientific collaboration can turn forecasting into foresight — and foresight into resilience.

Links

https://www.cnr.it/it/evento/20145 : CNR – Previsione meteorologica per la riduzione dei rischi naturali nel Sahel: la cooperazione scientifica Italia-Africa

https://www.cnr.it/it/news/13836/cambiamenti-climatici-e-disastri-naturali-una-sfida-comune-a-tutte-le-latitudini : CNR – Cambiamenti climatici e disastri naturali una sfida comune a tutte le latitudini

https://www.lamma.toscana.it/news/previsione-meteo-e-riduzione-dei-rischi-sahel-la-cooperazione-italia-africa : LaMMA – Cooperazione internazionale e meteorologia operativa: a Firenze una giornata di confronto

Presentations

1. Weather forecasting and climate risk reduction in dry tropical Africa (Vieri Tarchiani, IBE-CNR)
2. State of the art and applications of NWP in Burkina Faso (Lazare Sawadogo, ANAM)
3. Towards autonomy for Niger’s Meteorological Service in the production of climate services based on NWP (Ousman Baoua, DMN)
4. Training activities on meteorology and climatology hosted by the Italian Air Force (Antonio Vocino, Sezione Cooperazione Internazionale dell’Ufficio Generale AVIAMM dell’Aeronautica Militare)
5. Training in applied meteorology (Marina Baldi, WMO Regional Training Center in Italy/IBE-CNR)
6. MOLOCH: a CNR operational model for Europe (Oxana Drofa, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate-CNR)
7. MOLOCH West Africa (Francesco Pasi, LaMMA/IBE-CNR)
8. WRF verification in Niger and Burkina Faso (T. Bere / Y. Adamou Sayri – IBE-CNR/ANAM/DMN)
9. A Review of Recent Advances in AI Models for Weather Forecasting (Valerio Capecchi – LaMMA and ItaliaMeteo)
10. Forecasting, thresholds, and triggers for droughts in Mozambique (Massimiliano Pasqui, IBE-CNR)
11. International cooperation at Italia Meteo: Albatros project (Eva Merloni, Agenzia ItaliaMeteo)

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Snowfall contributions, in terms of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), show different trends depending on the geographic area, with a recovery in the Alps compared to last season, but still scarce snowfall in the Apennines. However, overall, there remains a 58% deficit compared to the 2011-2023 median (CIMA Foundation).

Reservoirs in Sardinia, Sicily, and Apulia (Capitanata) contain 3% to 15% less water than in the same period in 2023, while Basilicata shows a slight increase of 1% (see graph).

Regarding the large lakes of northern Italy, as of February 10, 2025, they all show filling levels well above average, mainly due to rainfall between late January and early February.

Hydroelectric energy production in Sicily during the week of January 27 to February 2 saw a significant increase compared to the previous year, as well as compared to other years such as 2023, 2021, and 2018.

Forecast for the Coming Months
Regarding air temperatures for the March-May 2025 quarter, data from major European medium-range forecasting centers indicate above-average values across all of Europe, with a probability ranging from 60% to 100%. Mediterranean sea surface temperatures are also expected to remain above average throughout the quarter, with a probability of 70%-100%.

As for precipitation, forecasts indicate above-average values over parts of Scandinavia. Across the rest of the continent, values are expected to remain at average levels or, with a probability between 40% and 50%, below average.

Read the full bulletin with graphs on droughtcentral.it  >>

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General Situation

According to Copernicus data, September 2024 was the second hottest September on record globally since 1979, following closely behind September 2023, based on the 1991-2020 reference period. However, it is crucial to consider these records in the broader context of a consistent increase in global temperatures. At the European level, temperature anomalies were generally positive, particularly in eastern continental areas, whereas negative anomalies affected much of western Atlantic Europe, including Ireland, Great Britain, and the Alps. Temperatures in both the Mediterranean and the Atlantic also remain significantly above average.

Rainfall has been above average in the south-east and central areas of Europe, as well as parts of the Iberian Peninsula and the south of the United Kingdom. During the middle of the month, Storm Boris had a major impact, causing widespread flooding across central-eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania, regions already dealing with the effects of prolonged and intense drought. In contrast, parts of Portugal, central and southern Spain, southern Italy, and northern Great Britain recorded rainfall below normal levels.

As of 16 October, the large lakes in northern Italy remain above average levels. Lake Maggiore, after declining at the start of September, has now stabilised around the seasonal average.

The reservoirs in Puglia, Basilicata, Sicily, and Sardinia continue to show significantly reduced water levels, particularly those in Sicily, Basilicata, and Puglia. Hydroelectric power production in northern Italy during the week of 7-13 October was close to the highest levels recorded since 2016. However, conditions in the south were much less favourable, with Sardinia reporting the second-lowest value on record, and Sicily reaching its minimum output.

Forecast for the Coming Months

For the November-January quarter, medium-term forecasts from major European centres indicate above-average air temperatures across Europe, with a probability of 40% to 70%, with the highest likelihood occurring in the Mediterranean region. Surface temperatures of the Mediterranean Sea are also expected to remain above average throughout the quarter, with a probability of 70% to 100%, especially in the central-eastern area. Rainfall forecasts indicate average values across most of Europe, with possible surpluses in Scandinavia and below-average rainfall in parts of the Iberian Peninsula and the western Mediterranean (probability 40-50%).

The full bulletin here

The post Drought Bulletin September 2024 appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

• The large lakes, as of 2nd January 2024, all show levels above the average filling values compared to the maximum available reservoir volume (volume is between the minimum and maximum limits of water regulation activity).
• The Po River, at the Pontelagoscuro measuring station, shows the peak related to the early December rainfall and ends the month with about 40cm more than at the end of 2022.
• The situation in Sardinia and Sicily: at the end of the month, the levels of the Sardinian reservoirs were below those of 2022 and, overall, were about 50% full (Sardinia Basin Authority); as a consequence, in the second week of January, the Central Sardinia Reclamation Consortium prohibited the use of water for irrigation. In Sicily, the drought and high temperatures forced several municipalities to ration water.
• As for the groundwater, at the end of December in Piedmont, the storage levels were below the average monthly values, with a tendency to be stationary or decreasing (ARPA Piedmont). In Veneto, the levels are falling, although they are within the average almost everywhere; values below the average persist in the upper Veronese plain (ARPA Veneto).
• In the last week of 2023, the hydroelectric power production values in the northern regions of the peninsula were the highest since 2016.

Forecasts for the coming months

Regarding air temperatures for the February-April quarter, the joint data from major European centres for medium-term forecasts indicate values above average over central-southern Europe, with a growing probability (40-70%) along the north-south latitudinal axis. Also, the surface temperatures of the Mediterranean are expected to be above average for the entire quarter, with a probability of 70 to 100%. Regarding rainfall, the quarter is expected to trend from wet to normal levels. In particular, February might be, with a probability of 40-50%, wetter than average over much of Italy.

Read the full December 2023 Bulletin»

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Forecast for the upcoming months
Regarding air temperatures for the November-January quarter, the overall data from major European forecasting centres for the medium term indicate above-average values across Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean, with a probability ranging from 60-70% for November to 40-50% for January. Sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean and the Northern Atlantic remain above average for the entire quarter, with probabilities ranging from 70 to 100%. Regarding precipitation, the quarter may be around the norm, with a higher likelihood of above-average precipitation in several European regions, including Italy, in November and January.

Global Impacts
The drought and high temperatures in recent months have had repercussions on various human activities and ecosystems.

Click to open the interactive map

Read the Bulletin September 2023

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Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has exhibited significant anomalies in the Mediterranean, with values up to 4-5 °C above the average in the western sector, accompanied by several “marine heatwaves,” as evidenced by Copernicus Marine Service Information data.
In Italy, surface water reserves show varied values depending on the region. Notable problems are concentrated in the North, at Lake Maggiore and Lake Como, while eastern lakes like Garda and Iseo are faring better. The situation in the central-southern regions is more favourable, with exceptions like Lake Trasimeno. Reservoirs in the South have decreased due to irrigation usage but maintain satisfactory levels.
As of early August, the flow of the Po River was below average in the Piedmont section and halved in Piacenza (Source: ANBI). At the Pontelagoscuro (FE) section, the water level hovers around -6m, approximately 1m higher than in the same period last year. From the perspective of hydroelectric production, the northern regions are showing significantly higher values compared to 2022.

Forecast for the Upcoming Months

Regarding air temperatures for the September-November quarter, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates above-average values across practically all of Europe. The same holds true for sea surface temperatures in the Mediterranean. As for precipitation, the quarter may experience, with a probability ranging from 40% to 70%, above-normal rainfall, especially in Mediterranean countries, particularly central-southern Italy, the Balkans, and Greece.

Read the complete June 2023 Bulletin

The post Drought Bulletin July 2023 appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

In Italy, the rains of the past two months have brought rainfall levels back to normal values compared to the short and medium-term accumulations (3-6 months).

The sea temperatures in 2023 have consistently been above average (as have the last 3 years), but starting from the second half of July, they are experiencing a powerful surge, with anomalies reaching over 4°C in some areas. This warming has a significant impact on increasing the atmospheric water vapour content, which in turn can favour the occurrence of very intense precipitation events.

The water reserves in the large lakes and basins of the north, from mid-May to mid-June, have returned to average values (if not higher, especially for Lake Maggiore and Lake Iseo), but they are expected to decrease again in the second half of June due to increased demand for irrigation purposes. An exception is Lake Garda, which remains around normal values, with a filling percentage compared to the maximum available capacity (volume between the minimum and maximum limits of water regulation activity) at around 70%.

The Po River also follows a similar trend. After peaking in May and early June, the water levels have returned to decrease. However, the level of criticality is generally rated as “low with precipitation,” although there are some concerns in the Alessandria and Cuneo areas, Western Emilia, and the Delta, where the sea level rise inland is about 20 km (source: Permanent Observatory on Water Uses of the Po River Basin District).

The hydroelectric sector production in Northern Italy maintains values significantly higher than the previous year and very similar, in the week of July 10-17, to those of 2021 (Source: ENTSO-E).

Forecast for the coming months

Regarding the temperatures for the August-October quarter, European meteorological centres are almost unanimous in predicting above-average values across Europe, including Italy.

As for rainfall, the quarter is expected to be wetter than average, particularly in the central-western Mediterranean region. Italy, as a whole, is likely to be affected by this phenomenon as well.

The temperatures of the Mediterranean and Atlantic seas (especially the central-northern sector) are also above average, especially in August and September.

Read the complete June 2023 Bulletin

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On June 19, the FAO-IRI (Italian Research Institutes) joint event addressed the pressing need for collaborative actions to address drought and agricultural challenges through participatory and innovative tools, methods, and approaches. The event aimed to explore novel solutions for effective drought management in the agricultural sector.

This event took place within the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June 2015 between FAO and IRI, in conjunction with prominent Italian research institutes such as ENEA, CNR, CREA, and ISPRA. The MoU, which was renewed in 2022, has a core objective of assisting developing countries in strengthening their agricultural sectors through research and innovation. Throughout the joint event, several key aspects were discussed, including: (i) highlighting the significant impacts of drought on agriculture and raising public awareness on this critical issue; and (ii) examining various initiatives focused on technological advancements, institutional reforms, social interventions, and policy adjustments to mitigate the effects of drought on agriculture, thereby fostering the transition towards sustainable agrifood systems.

The Programme

Institutional Welcome
FAO: Vincent Martin/Mr Lifeng Li
ENEA: Roberto Morabito
CNR: Giorgio Mateucci
CREA: Filiberto Altobelli
ISPRA: Piero Genovesi

Introduction to the event
G.P. Cesaretti – Naples University Parthenope, Coordinator of the ASVIS Working Group for Goal 2 of the 2030 Agenda

Theme 1: New Solutions for Irrigation to Optimize the Management of water resources
FAO Land and Water

Theme 2: Biotechnologies for the improvement of performance under water stress conditions
Gianfranco Diretto – ENEA

Theme 3: Droughts, water stress and water availability: current situation and what to expect in the future due to climate change and human pressures
Martina Bussettini, Giovanni Braca, Stefano Mariani – ISPRA

Theme 4: Empowering communities with precision agriculture and climate seasonal forecast to address climate change challenges in developed and developing countries
Massimiliano Pasqui, Piero Toscano, Ramona Magno and Vieri Tarchiani – CNR

Theme 5: Food and Consumers Ratio to reduce waste and improve the diet with products with a lower water footprint
Marika Ferrari and Laura Rossi – CREA

Closing Remarks
FAO: Mr Vincent Martin/Mr Lifeng Li IRI:
ENEA: Massimo Iannetta
CREA: Filiberto Altobelli
CNR: Antonello Bonfante
ISPRA: Anna Luise

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Persistent drought has plagued various parts of southwestern Europe for almost two years, despite May’s rainfall (in some cases even flooding), which has reduced the accumulated deficits in the short and medium term. In Spain, for example, May ended with rainfall totals around or above average in some areas, but the average water reserves remained below 50% (see the featured image).

The Situation in Italy

In Italy, the rains, even above average, have been beneficial (where they were obviously not “destructive” as in the case of the floods in Emilia Romagna). The rainfall has undoubtedly increased the water reserves in the large lakes and reservoirs in the north, with water levels reaching almost maximum capacity in Lake Maggiore and Lake Iseo, and hydrological heights finally above average, except for Lake Garda, which is slowly catching up.

Even the levels of the Po River, after months of stagnation well below average values, have risen along its entire course, particularly in the latter half of the month (with sometimes significant fluctuations due to intense rainfall events). In Piedmont, groundwater levels are also increasing, although the groundwater table (the distance between ground level and the water table) remains ample (Source: ARPA Piemonte).

The May precipitation also included snowfall, reducing the deficit from -64% in March to -49% in early June compared to the reference period of 2011–2021 (Source: CIMA Foundation). However, the snowfall was not uniform and was mainly concentrated in the western sector of the Alps.

Furthermore, the hydropower sector in Northern Italy continues to maintain production levels higher than last year, which was the worst since 2016 (Source: ENTSO-E).

Forecast for the upcoming months 

As for the temperatures during the July-September quarter, European meteorological centres agree that temperatures will be above average throughout Europe. In Italy, these anomalies may be more pronounced in the northern regions, particularly in August (with a probability between 50% and 60%).

With regard to rainfall, the upcoming quarter is forecast to be wetter than average, particularly in the Mediterranean and Western European regions. In Italy, these precipitation patterns are expected to primarily affect July and August, while September should see normal levels of rainfall.

However, it should be noted that low precipitation characterises the summer months.

Read the complete May 2023 Bulletin

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In Italy, the water levels of the major lakes in the north caused concern until April 20th when they began a slow rise, which, as of May 10th, brought Lake Maggiore, Lake Como, and Lake Iseo above average values, while the filling level of Lake Garda remains low at 48.6%.

Following the rainfalls at the end of the month and especially the event at the beginning of May, the Po River experienced a peak flow along its entire course from west to east, which dissipated within a few days, although not at the levels of late April, still below average values for this time of the year.

Hydropower production in Northern Italy is increasing compared to last year and even to 2021, the worst year since 2016.

The rainfalls in the first days of May, where the precipitations were not extreme, and those expected at least until the middle of the month, should primarily benefit agriculture by increasing soil moisture and replenishing surface water reserves.

Next month’s Forecast: Regarding the temperatures for the summer trimester of June to August, European meteorological centres are mostly in agreement in predicting above-average values across Europe, particularly in the central-western and Mediterranean regions, with a probability ranging from 60% to 100%. As for rainfall, the trimester is expected to be wetter than average, especially in the Mediterranean and Western European regions. However, we should not forget that this is still the summer season, inherently characterised by low precipitation.

Read the full April 2023 Bulletin

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