Vieri Tarchiani, Author at climateservices.it CNR-IBE

Previsione delle Interruzioni di Energia Elettrica: Dai Metodi Classici agli Approcci di Machine Learning

Vieri Tarchiani — Mon, 11 May 2026 12:18:59 +0000

Il Centro Regionale di Formazione dell’Organizzazione Meteorologica Mondiale (WMO-RTC) in Italia ed il Consorzio LaMMA organizzano un seminario online che sarà tenuto dal dott. Diego Cerrai (University of Connecticut) martedì 26 Maggio 2026 alle 15:00.

Sarà possibile seguire gratuitamente in seminario online previa registrazione al seguente link: Registrazione Webinar

Previsione delle Interruzioni di Energia Elettrica: Dai Metodi Classici agli Approcci di Machine Learning

Con il progressivo aumento dell’elettrificazione della società e della richiesta di connettività continua, le interruzioni di energia elettrica stanno diventando sempre più problematiche in molte aree del mondo, con importanti conseguenze socio-economiche e sanitare. Le tempeste intense rappresentano il principale fattore responsabile delle prolungate interruzioni di corrente, e la previsione del loro impatto sulla rete elettrica è essenziale affinché le aziende del settore possano adottare azioni tempestive ed efficaci per garantire la continuità del servizio.

Negli ultimi due decenni, il settore della previsione dei blackout si è evoluto passando da approcci statistici rudimentali a framework di machine learning sempre più sofisticati. Sebbene questi progressi abbiano ridotto di un ordine di grandezza gli errori di previsione per alcune tipologie di tempesta, hanno anche evidenziato importanti criticità per altre — in particolare per le tempeste di neve e ghiaccio — mettendo in luce i limiti dei modelli numerici di previsione meteorologica e il ruolo cruciale delle parametrizzazioni microfisiche.

Dopo una panoramica sull’evoluzione della previsione delle interruzioni elettriche negli ultimi vent’anni, il Webinar affronterà le principali caratteristiche di uno dei più avanzati sistemi di previsione dei blackout — l’UConn OPM — con particolare attenzione alle tempeste di neve e ghiaccio e alla necessità di migliorare le stime dell’accumulo di ghiaccio fornite dai modelli numerici di previsione meteorologica per applicazioni infrastrutturali. Infine si illustreranno i piani di estensione di questo framework a tutta il Nord America.

Biografia

Il Dott. Diego Cerrai è Assistant Professor di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale presso la University of Connecticut e Direttore ad interim dell’Eversource Energy Center. La sua attività di ricerca riguarda la microfisica delle precipitazioni, la modellistica degli impatti meteorologici, la resilienza delle reti elettriche, le energie rinnovabili e la giustizia energetica.

Ha ricevuto il prestigioso NSF CAREER Award ed è stato Principal Investigator (PI) o Co-Principal Investigator (Co-PI) di progetti per un valore complessivo superiore a 20 milioni di dollari in finanziamenti per ricerca e sviluppo provenienti da industria ed enti federali, tra cui NASA, National Science Foundation (NSF), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) e importanti aziende del settore energetico. È inoltre responsabile del progetto North American Outage Prediction Model (NA-OPM).

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2026: Une saison excédentaire à moyenne dans le Sahel Centre et Est et normale à déficitaire dans la zone soudanienne et le Sahel Ouest

Vieri Tarchiani — Thu, 07 May 2026 12:10:11 +0000

Forum 2026 des Prévisions Saisonnières des caractéristiques Agro-hydro-climatiques de la saison
des pluies pour les zones Soudanienne et Sahélienne de l’Afrique l’Ouest et du Sahel (PRESASS,
2026)

Pour la saison des pluies 2026, il est attendu des cumuls pluviométriques excédentaires à moyens
dans le Sahel Centre et Est et normaux à déficitaires dans la zone soudanienne et le Sahel Ouest, avec
des dates de démarrage moyennes à tardives dans le Sahel Ouest et normales à précoces dans le
Sahel Centre et Est, des dates de fin tardives à moyennes dans le Sahel Ouest et normal dans le Sahel
Centre et Est, des séquences sèches globalement longues à moyennes et des écoulements
globalement moyens à excédentaires dans les principaux bassins fluviaux.

Organisée du 20 au 24 avril 2026 à Ndjaména au Tchad, par AGRHYMET Centre Climatique Régional
pour l’Afrique de l’Ouest et le Sahel (AGRHYMET CCR-AOS) et l’Agence Nationale de la Météorologie
(ANAM) et la Direction des Ressources en Eau du Tchad, en collaboration avec le Centre Africain pour
les Applications de la Météorologie au Développement (ACMAD), les services météorologiques et
hydrologiques nationaux (SMHN) des 17 pays de l’Afrique de l’Ouest et du Sahel, les organismes des
bassins fluviaux et avec la participation des représentants des plateformes d’interface utilisateurs (des
secteurs de l’agriculture et de la sécurité alimentaire, des ressources en eau et réduction des risques
des catastrophes et de la sécurité climatique) et des points focaux des actions anticipatoires.

Pour acceder au bulletin complet cliquez ici COMMUNIQUE-FINAL_PRESASS_Ndjamena_2026_VF.

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Metodi di Machine Learning per calcolare le climatologie della rete Meteonetwork partendo da dati incompleti

Vieri Tarchiani — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 08:02:39 +0000

Il Centro Regionale di Formazione dell’Organizzazione Meteorologica Mondiale (WMO-RTC) in Italia ed il Consorzio LaMMA organizzano un seminario che sarà tenuto dal dott. Guido Cioni (Airbus/MeteoNetwork) giovedì 16 Aprile 2026 alle 14:30.

Sarà possibile seguire gratuitamente in seminario online previa registrazione al seguente link: https://tinyurl.com/webinar-16aprile

Metodi di Machine Learning per calcolare le climatologie della rete Meteonetwork partendo da dati incompleti

Il monitoraggio climatico è vitale per un Paese come l’Italia, fortemente esposto a eventi estremi quali alluvioni e ondate di calore. Per un’analisi statisticamente rilevante, l’Organizzazione Meteorologica Mondiale (WMO) raccomanda l’utilizzo di serie storiche ininterrotte di almeno 30 anni, requisiti difficili da soddisfare con reti amatoriali come quella di Meteonetwork, caratterizzata da un periodo di attività relativamente breve (dal 2004), densità variabile e frequenti gap osservativi. In questa presentazione dimostreremo come, integrando tecniche di Machine Learning e dati di rianalisi come proxy, sia possibile ricostruire con errori minimi i campi di temperatura e precipitazione su interi periodi climatologici, anche per stazioni con pochi anni di storico. Tale metodologia è attualmente operativa sul sito di Meteonetwork per il calcolo delle anomalie termiche e pluviometriche su diverse scale temporali (decadali, mensili, stagionali e annuali).

Guido Cioni, laureato in Fisica con specializzazione in Fisica dell’Atmosfera e Meteorologia presso l’Università di Bologna, è un esperto di modellistica numerica ad alta risoluzione. Dopo aver studiato i cicloni mediterranei e i feedback suolo-atmosfera, ha condotto ricerche di dottorato e post-dottorato al Max Planck Institute di Amburgo, sviluppando simulazioni LES fino a 125 metri sul territorio tedesco. Dal 2019 lavora in Airbus come specialista di dati meteo per l’aviazione, focalizzandosi sulla simulazione delle scie di condensa e del loro impatto radiativo. Dal 2021 collabora come volontario con Meteonetwork nell’elaborazione di dati climatologici e, nel tempo libero, si occupa di divulgazione scientifica su clima e aviazione tramite la sua newsletter https://guidocioni.substack.com.

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Installation kit WRF and MOLOCH

Vieri Tarchiani — Tue, 03 Feb 2026 15:48:59 +0000

As part of the SLAPIS Sahel project, IBE-CNR, in collaboration with the LaMMA Consortium and the Regional Training Center of the World Meteorological Organization in Italy, organized a long-term training course on numerical weather prediction for the benefit of the National Meteorological Services of Niger (DMN) and Burkina Faso (ANAM). The training allowed one expert from ANAM and one from DMN to be integrated into the LaMMA Consortium’s operational team for more than a year and to acquire operational competence in the management, installation, parameterization, and evaluation of the WRF and MOLOCH numerical weather prediction models.

Following the training, the participants created and published an installation manual on GitHub, accompanied by an automated installation script for WRF (v4.7.1) and MOLOCH. The manual and script are available free of charge at the following links:

WRF slapis-git/install-wrf-home

MOLOCH slapis-git/install-moloch-home

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Transfert of MOLOCH model to ANAM Burkina Faso

Vieri Tarchiani — Mon, 02 Feb 2026 10:34:50 +0000

One of the main objectives of the SLAPIS Sahel project is to strengthen numerical weather forecasting (NWF) capabilities in order to support the hydrological early warning system. In this context, Niger’s National Meteorological Service (DNM) and Burkina Faso’s National Meteorological Agency (ANAM) have made the strategic decision to develop a weather forecasting chain based on the MOLOCH model.

MOLOCH is a non-hydrostatic regional model developed by CNR-ISAC (Italy). It enables the production of very high spatial resolution forecasts and explicitly represents convective phenomena. The model solves the non-hydrostatic and fully compressible equations of the atmosphere, with a horizontal resolution of up to 0.0113° (1.25 km), 60 atmospheric levels, and 13 ground levels.

It was in this context that a training seminar was organized from November 3 to 7, 2025, in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, for the benefit of weather forecasting and modeling experts from ANAM in Burkina Faso. This training aimed to ensure a transfer of skills between the various stakeholders (Burkina Faso, Niger, Italy) for the management and operation of the MOLOCH model. 15 experts attended the seminar, which was followed by a two month period of post-training activities. The main outcome of this seminar was the installation of a MOLOCH-based forecasting chain on ANAM servers. The chain consists of a 3k resolution model nested onto a 9 km model initialized with GFS forecasts. The chain is being actually tested before becoming operational.

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From Training to Transformation: Co-Developing Forecasting Capacities for Early Warning in West Africa

Vieri Tarchiani — Tue, 02 Dec 2025 11:49:54 +0000

Training in operational methods for African National Meteorological Services (NMSs) is supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through its Regional Training Centres and the Consortium of WMO Education and Training Collaborating Partners (CONECT). Several centres within the WMO network offer Basic Instruction Packages for Meteorologists (BIP-M) and Meteorological Technicians (BIP-MT), and some NMSs provide internal training in weather forecasting, aviation meteorology and other operational services.

For many developing-country NMSs without internal training facilities, advanced capacity development often relies on short, intensive courses lasting one or two weeks and focused on specific techniques or tools. While these courses can improve knowledge and technical skills, they rarely lead to a meaningful increase in competence—which requires the sustained application of methods and tools within real operational environments.

In line with this principle, one of the most effective approaches to building lasting competence is to embed trainees within an operational team for a sufficiently long period. This allows them to acquire not only technical knowledge but also hands-on operational experience and an understanding of the team’s working practices.

During the joint CALMET XVI and CONEC T 3 conference held in Florence, Italy, on 24–28 November 2025, a panel session presented the collaborative experience between the Meteorological Service of the Tuscany Region (LaMMA, Italy), the National Meteorological Services of Niger (DMN) and Burkina Faso (ANAM), supported by the National Research Council of Italy (CNR) through the Institute of BioEconomy (IBE) and the WMO Regional Training Center in Italy.

With the facilitation of Mr. Stephen Kerr (Meteorological Service of Canada), the panelists illustrated how, within the Slapis Sahel project, the WMO Regional Training Center in Italy designed and implemented a blended and integrated training programme aimed at strengthening the competencies of the NMSs of Niger and Burkina Faso. The objective was to enable local forecasters, modelers and IT specialists to operationalize regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) chains in support of hydrometeorological early warning systems.

The cornerstone of this programme was the embedding of two modelers from the African partner institutions into the IBE–LaMMA operational team for more than a year. Working closely with Italian researchers and forecasters, they acquired not only technical knowledge and skills but also operational experience and competence in running and maintaining NWP systems. This training strategy is fully aligned with the WMO Competency Framework for Public Weather Service Forecasters and Advisers.

The panelists discussed both the results and the challenges of this approach, highlighting its mutual benefits for African and Italian institutions. They also outlined the conditions needed to ensure the sustainability and replicability of embedding trainees within operational teams, including institutional commitment, technical readiness and individual motivation.

The Panlelists; from left to right: Vieri Tarchiani, Bernardo Gozzini, Valerio Capecchi, Rakiswende Thomas Bere, Younoussa Adamou Sayri and Stephen Kerr.

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LaMMA and IBE-CNR with ANAM Burkina Faso for the Transfer of MOLOCH Model

Vieri Tarchiani — Thu, 13 Nov 2025 15:32:45 +0000

As part of the SLAPIS Sahel project, a capacity-building mission was carried out in Ouagadougou from 3 to 7 November 2025 to strengthen high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) capabilities in Burkina Faso. The initiative followed the strong interest expressed by both the Niger and Burkina Faso Meteorological Services in adopting MOLOCH, the convection-permitting operational model developed by the National Research Council of Italy (CNR).

The mission built on technical discussions held earlier in April 2025 in Niamey and Ouagadougou, during which the first validation results of the WRF model were presented and opportunities for improving forecasting tools were explored. A dedicated online seminar on 19 May 2025 further introduced MOLOCH’s potential and led to the definition of a roadmap for testing and transferring the operational chain to the Agence Nationale de la Météorologie (ANAM) of Burkina Faso and Niger’s Direction Nationale de la Météorologie (DNM).

During the five-day “learning by doing” training, ANAM experts received hands-on knowledge on the installation, configuration, and initial testing of the MOLOCH model. Participants worked on domain setup, simulation tests, model management, post-processing procedures, and the generation of operational forecast products. A field visit and several technical sessions further supported collaborative learning and problem-solving.

Delivered by specialists from IBE-CNR and the LaMMA Consortium—together with experts from DNM and ANAM—this mission marked an important step toward enhancing local forecasting capacities and improving severe-weather early-warning services across the Sahel.

In addition, on Friday, during LaMMA’s regular weekly forecast livestream, a live connection was made with the two LaMMA forecasters and Thomas Bere (ANAM) presented the weekly weather bulletin for Burkina Faso from the weather–media room of the Burkina Faso Meteorological Service (minute 12:45).

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Weather Forecasting and Climate Cooperation between Italy and Africa: Strengthening Early Warning and Resilience in the Sahel

Vieri Tarchiani — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 12:17:33 +0000

Florence, 14 October 2025 — Climate change is amplifying the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events worldwide, with devastating effects on societies, infrastructures and economies. These impacts are particularly severe in the Sahel, where high social and economic vulnerability combines with exposure to floods, droughts, and heatwaves. In response, Italian research and meteorological institutions are joining forces with their African counterparts to improve forecasting capacity and strengthen early-warning systems for natural risk reduction.

Under the coordination of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR), through its Institute for BioEconomy (CNR-IBE), and the LaMMA Consortium — the operational meteorological service of the Tuscany Region — an international meeting titled “International Cooperation in Applied Meteorology for Reducing Hydroclimatic Risks” has been held in Florence, Italy, on 14 October 2025. The event brings together representatives of Italian and African meteorological services, researchers, international organizations, and cooperation agencies to share experiences, consolidate partnerships, and discuss future directions for operational forecasting in the region.

As highlighted by CNR, “Climate change and natural disasters represent a common challenge at all latitudes.” This shared challenge requires joint scientific action, capacity building, and knowledge exchange. For more than forty years, CNR has been engaged in research, technology transfer and training — through the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Training Centre in Italy (WMO-RTC Italy) — in Africa promoting collaboration and co-development in meteorology, climatology, and agrometeorology.

The Florence meeting showcases this long-standing cooperation, particularly through projects such as SLAPIS Sahel, funded by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS) and implemented by the Politecnico di Torino, CNR-IBE, LaMMA, and the national meteorological services of Niger and Burkina Faso. The initiative focuses on improving operational meteorological forecasting chains and developing hydrometeorological early-warning services adapted to local contexts. It also invests in human capacity — training African forecasters, modellers, and IT specialists both in Italy and in their home countries — to ensure that advanced tools like the MOLOCH and WRF models can be effectively used for real-time weather prediction.

Beyond its scientific dimension, the event symbolizes a broader vision of international cooperation: building resilience together, across continents, through shared knowledge and trust. It includes the signing of new collaboration agreements between the Italian and African institutions, reaffirming the commitment to long-term partnerships that go beyond project cycles.

As LaMMA emphasizes, “operational meteorology and international cooperation go hand in hand when it comes to protecting lives and livelihoods.” By pooling expertise and resources, Italy, Niger and Burkina Faso are contributing to a global effort to make meteorological services more accurate, inclusive, and impactful.

At a time when climate extremes are increasing everywhere, initiatives like this one highlight how joint scientific collaboration can turn forecasting into foresight — and foresight into resilience.

Links

https://www.cnr.it/it/evento/20145 : CNR – Previsione meteorologica per la riduzione dei rischi naturali nel Sahel: la cooperazione scientifica Italia-Africa

https://www.cnr.it/it/news/13836/cambiamenti-climatici-e-disastri-naturali-una-sfida-comune-a-tutte-le-latitudini : CNR – Cambiamenti climatici e disastri naturali una sfida comune a tutte le latitudini

https://www.lamma.toscana.it/news/previsione-meteo-e-riduzione-dei-rischi-sahel-la-cooperazione-italia-africa : LaMMA – Cooperazione internazionale e meteorologia operativa: a Firenze una giornata di confronto

Presentations

Weather forecasting and climate risk reduction in dry tropical Africa (Vieri Tarchiani, IBE-CNR)
State of the art and applications of NWP in Burkina Faso (Lazare Sawadogo, ANAM)
Towards autonomy for Niger’s Meteorological Service in the production of climate services based on NWP (Ousman Baoua, DMN)
Training activities on meteorology and climatology hosted by the Italian Air Force (Antonio Vocino, Sezione Cooperazione Internazionale dell’Ufficio Generale AVIAMM dell’Aeronautica Militare)
Training in applied meteorology (Marina Baldi, WMO Regional Training Center in Italy/IBE-CNR)
MOLOCH: a CNR operational model for Europe (Oxana Drofa, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate-CNR)
MOLOCH West Africa (Francesco Pasi, LaMMA/IBE-CNR)
WRF verification in Niger and Burkina Faso (T. Bere / Y. Adamou Sayri – IBE-CNR/ANAM/DMN)
A Review of Recent Advances in AI Models for Weather Forecasting (Valerio Capecchi – LaMMA and ItaliaMeteo)
Forecasting, thresholds, and triggers for droughts in Mozambique (Massimiliano Pasqui, IBE-CNR)
International cooperation at Italia Meteo: Albatros project (Eva Merloni, Agenzia ItaliaMeteo)

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Situation hydrologique du fleuve Niger à Niamey au mois de septembre 2024

Vieri Tarchiani — Wed, 30 Oct 2024 12:29:58 +0000

La situation hydrologique au cours du mois de septembre 2024 a été caractérisée par des précipitations qui ont engendré d’importants écoulements au niveau du fleuve Niger qui drainent des volumes d’eau de plus en plus importants. Plusieurs cas d’inondations ont été enregistrés avec d’énormes dégâts sur les terres agricoles et les habitations.

A la station hydrométrique du Niger à Niamey, le débit maximum mensuel de 2133 m³/s (hauteur d’eau 632 cm) a été observé le 13 et 16 septembre 2024 dépassant ainsi le seuil d’alerte rouge fixé à 620 cm. Le minimum de 1456 m³/s (hauteur d’eau 532 cm) a été observé le 05 septembre 2024. Le débit moyen mensuel au cours de ce mois de septembre est de 1889 m³/s correspondant à un volume moyen écoulé de 4,896 milliards de m³, contre 1320 m³/s (volume écoulé 3,420 milliards de m³) sur la même période l’année passée en 2023, 1865 m³/s (volume écoulé 4,834 milliards de m³) l’année humide 2012 et 2239 m³/s (volume écoulé 5,803 milliards de m³) l’année humide 2020.

A partir du 13 septembre 2024, plusieurs ondes de crues ont été signalées avec des hauteurs d’eau qui ont dépassé le seuil critique dit « seuil d’alerte rouge fixée à 620 cm pour un débit de 2 046 m³/s ». Ce niveau de seuil, faut-il le rappeler, a une menace directe sur la sécurité des personnes et des biens.

L’analyse des hydrogrammes des débits montre également que celui de cette année est globalement au-dessus de celui de l’année passée, de la moyenne décennale (2014-2023) et de l’année humide 2012. Il reste également au-dessus de celui de l’année humide 2020 dans la deuxième moitié de la troisième décade (Figures 1).

Pour plus d’informations consultez le bulletin hydrologique du mois de septembre 2024 (Bulletin Hydrologique_Mensuel_Septembre_2024)

Pour consulter le débit du Fleuve Niger à Niamey et de la Sirba à Garbey Kourou consultez la plateforme SLAPIS à slapis-niger.org

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Remontée du Fleuve Niger à Niamey le 11 septembre 2024

Vieri Tarchiani — Fri, 13 Sep 2024 12:18:01 +0000

Le mois d’Aout 2024 a été caracterisé par une forte montée des eaux du Fleuve Niger culminant le 21 aout 2024 avec un pic de débit de 2438 m3/s (hauteur d’eau 672 cm). Après une baisse qui a ramené le niveau du fleuve Niger à Niamey sous le seuil de vigilance verte (h< 530 cm et d < 1 444 m3/s), suite aux fortes pluies, le fleuve a connu une remontée qui l’a fait repasser au-dessus du seuil de vigilance orange le 11 septembre (h≥ 580 cm et d ≥ 1 766 m3/s).

Pour le suivi en temps réel du débit du Fleuve Niger à Niamey visitez la plateforme SLAPIS (www.slapis-niger.org).

La plateforme SLAPIS, developpée dans le cadre du projet ANADIA2 est desormais gerée dans le cadre du nouveau projet SLAPIS Sahel.

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