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Metodi di Machine Learning per calcolare le climatologie della rete Meteonetwork partendo da dati incompleti

Il monitoraggio climatico è vitale per un Paese come l’Italia, fortemente esposto a eventi estremi quali alluvioni e ondate di calore. Per un’analisi statisticamente rilevante, l’Organizzazione Meteorologica Mondiale (WMO) raccomanda l’utilizzo di serie storiche ininterrotte di almeno 30 anni, requisiti difficili da soddisfare con reti amatoriali come quella di Meteonetwork, caratterizzata da un periodo di attività relativamente breve (dal 2004), densità variabile e frequenti gap osservativi. In questa presentazione dimostreremo come, integrando tecniche di Machine Learning e dati di rianalisi come proxy, sia possibile ricostruire con errori minimi i campi di temperatura e precipitazione su interi periodi climatologici, anche per stazioni con pochi anni di storico. Tale metodologia è attualmente operativa sul sito di Meteonetwork per il calcolo delle anomalie termiche e pluviometriche su diverse scale temporali (decadali, mensili, stagionali e annuali).

Guido Cioni, laureato in Fisica con specializzazione in Fisica dell’Atmosfera e Meteorologia presso l’Università di Bologna, è un esperto di modellistica numerica ad alta risoluzione. Dopo aver studiato i cicloni mediterranei e i feedback suolo-atmosfera, ha condotto ricerche di dottorato e post-dottorato al Max Planck Institute di Amburgo, sviluppando simulazioni LES fino a 125 metri sul territorio tedesco. Dal 2019 lavora in Airbus come specialista di dati meteo per l’aviazione, focalizzandosi sulla simulazione delle scie di condensa e del loro impatto radiativo. Dal 2021 collabora come volontario con Meteonetwork nell’elaborazione di dati climatologici e, nel tempo libero, si occupa di divulgazione scientifica su clima e aviazione tramite la sua newsletter https://guidocioni.substack.com.

The post Metodi di Machine Learning per calcolare le climatologie della rete Meteonetwork partendo da dati incompleti appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

Following the training, the participants created and published an installation manual on GitHub, accompanied by an automated installation script for WRF (v4.7.1) and MOLOCH. The manual and script are available free of charge at the following links:

WRF slapis-git/install-wrf-home

MOLOCH slapis-git/install-moloch-home

The post Installation kit WRF and MOLOCH appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

MOLOCH is a non-hydrostatic regional model developed by CNR-ISAC (Italy). It enables the production of very high spatial resolution forecasts and explicitly represents convective phenomena. The model solves the non-hydrostatic and fully compressible equations of the atmosphere, with a horizontal resolution of up to 0.0113° (1.25 km), 60 atmospheric levels, and 13 ground levels.

It was in this context that a training seminar was organized from November 3 to 7, 2025, in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, for the benefit of weather forecasting and modeling experts from ANAM in Burkina Faso. This training aimed to ensure a transfer of skills between the various stakeholders (Burkina Faso, Niger, Italy) for the management and operation of the MOLOCH model. 15 experts attended the seminar, which was followed by a two month period of post-training activities. The main outcome of this seminar was the installation of a MOLOCH-based forecasting chain on ANAM servers. The chain consists of a 3k resolution model nested onto a 9 km model initialized with GFS forecasts. The chain is being actually tested before becoming operational.

The post Transfert of MOLOCH model to ANAM Burkina Faso appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

For many developing-country NMSs without internal training facilities, advanced capacity development often relies on short, intensive courses lasting one or two weeks and focused on specific techniques or tools. While these courses can improve knowledge and technical skills, they rarely lead to a meaningful increase in competence—which requires the sustained application of methods and tools within real operational environments.

In line with this principle, one of the most effective approaches to building lasting competence is to embed trainees within an operational team for a sufficiently long period. This allows them to acquire not only technical knowledge but also hands-on operational experience and an understanding of the team’s working practices.

During the joint CALMET XVI and CONEC T 3 conference held in Florence, Italy, on 24–28 November 2025, a panel session presented the collaborative experience between the Meteorological Service of the Tuscany Region (LaMMA, Italy), the National Meteorological Services of Niger (DMN) and Burkina Faso (ANAM), supported by the National Research Council of Italy (CNR) through the Institute of BioEconomy (IBE) and the WMO Regional Training Center in Italy.

With the facilitation of Mr. Stephen Kerr (Meteorological Service of Canada), the panelists illustrated how, within the Slapis Sahel project, the WMO Regional Training Center in Italy designed and implemented a blended and integrated training programme aimed at strengthening the competencies of the NMSs of Niger and Burkina Faso. The objective was to enable local forecasters, modelers and IT specialists to operationalize regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) chains in support of hydrometeorological early warning systems.

The cornerstone of this programme was the embedding of two modelers from the African partner institutions into the IBE–LaMMA operational team for more than a year. Working closely with Italian researchers and forecasters, they acquired not only technical knowledge and skills but also operational experience and competence in running and maintaining NWP systems. This training strategy is fully aligned with the WMO Competency Framework for Public Weather Service Forecasters and Advisers.

The panelists discussed both the results and the challenges of this approach, highlighting its mutual benefits for African and Italian institutions. They also outlined the conditions needed to ensure the sustainability and replicability of embedding trainees within operational teams, including institutional commitment, technical readiness and individual motivation.

The Panlelists; from left to right: Vieri Tarchiani, Bernardo Gozzini, Valerio Capecchi, Rakiswende Thomas Bere, Younoussa Adamou Sayri and Stephen Kerr.

The post From Training to Transformation: Co-Developing Forecasting Capacities for Early Warning in West Africa appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

The mission built on technical discussions held earlier in April 2025 in Niamey and Ouagadougou, during which the first validation results of the WRF model were presented and opportunities for improving forecasting tools were explored. A dedicated online seminar on 19 May 2025 further introduced MOLOCH’s potential and led to the definition of a roadmap for testing and transferring the operational chain to the Agence Nationale de la Météorologie (ANAM) of Burkina Faso and Niger’s Direction Nationale de la Météorologie (DNM).

During the five-day “learning by doing” training, ANAM experts received hands-on knowledge on the installation, configuration, and initial testing of the MOLOCH model. Participants worked on domain setup, simulation tests, model management, post-processing procedures, and the generation of operational forecast products. A field visit and several technical sessions further supported collaborative learning and problem-solving.

Delivered by specialists from IBE-CNR and the LaMMA Consortium—together with experts from DNM and ANAM—this mission marked an important step toward enhancing local forecasting capacities and improving severe-weather early-warning services across the Sahel.

In addition, on Friday, during LaMMA’s regular weekly forecast livestream, a live connection was made with the two LaMMA forecasters and Thomas Bere (ANAM) presented the weekly weather bulletin for Burkina Faso from the weather–media room of the Burkina Faso Meteorological Service (minute 12:45).

The post LaMMA and IBE-CNR with ANAM Burkina Faso for the Transfer of MOLOCH Model appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

Under the coordination of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR), through its Institute for BioEconomy (CNR-IBE), and the LaMMA Consortium — the operational meteorological service of the Tuscany Region — an international meeting titled “International Cooperation in Applied Meteorology for Reducing Hydroclimatic Risks” has been held in Florence, Italy, on 14 October 2025. The event brings together representatives of Italian and African meteorological services, researchers, international organizations, and cooperation agencies to share experiences, consolidate partnerships, and discuss future directions for operational forecasting in the region.

As highlighted by CNR, “Climate change and natural disasters represent a common challenge at all latitudes.” This shared challenge requires joint scientific action, capacity building, and knowledge exchange. For more than forty years, CNR has been engaged in research, technology transfer and training  — through the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Training Centre in Italy (WMO-RTC Italy) — in Africa promoting collaboration and co-development in meteorology, climatology, and agrometeorology.

The Florence meeting showcases this long-standing cooperation, particularly through projects such as SLAPIS Sahel, funded by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS) and implemented by the Politecnico di Torino, CNR-IBE, LaMMA, and the national meteorological services of Niger and Burkina Faso. The initiative focuses on improving operational meteorological forecasting chains and developing hydrometeorological early-warning services adapted to local contexts. It also invests in human capacity — training African forecasters, modellers, and IT specialists both in Italy and in their home countries — to ensure that advanced tools like the MOLOCH and WRF models can be effectively used for real-time weather prediction.

Beyond its scientific dimension, the event symbolizes a broader vision of international cooperation: building resilience together, across continents, through shared knowledge and trust. It includes the signing of new collaboration agreements between the Italian and African institutions, reaffirming the commitment to long-term partnerships that go beyond project cycles.

As LaMMA emphasizes, “operational meteorology and international cooperation go hand in hand when it comes to protecting lives and livelihoods.” By pooling expertise and resources, Italy, Niger and Burkina Faso are contributing to a global effort to make meteorological services more accurate, inclusive, and impactful.

At a time when climate extremes are increasing everywhere, initiatives like this one highlight how joint scientific collaboration can turn forecasting into foresight — and foresight into resilience.

Links

https://www.cnr.it/it/evento/20145 : CNR – Previsione meteorologica per la riduzione dei rischi naturali nel Sahel: la cooperazione scientifica Italia-Africa

https://www.cnr.it/it/news/13836/cambiamenti-climatici-e-disastri-naturali-una-sfida-comune-a-tutte-le-latitudini : CNR – Cambiamenti climatici e disastri naturali una sfida comune a tutte le latitudini

https://www.lamma.toscana.it/news/previsione-meteo-e-riduzione-dei-rischi-sahel-la-cooperazione-italia-africa : LaMMA – Cooperazione internazionale e meteorologia operativa: a Firenze una giornata di confronto

Presentations

1. Weather forecasting and climate risk reduction in dry tropical Africa (Vieri Tarchiani, IBE-CNR)
2. State of the art and applications of NWP in Burkina Faso (Lazare Sawadogo, ANAM)
3. Towards autonomy for Niger’s Meteorological Service in the production of climate services based on NWP (Ousman Baoua, DMN)
4. Training activities on meteorology and climatology hosted by the Italian Air Force (Antonio Vocino, Sezione Cooperazione Internazionale dell’Ufficio Generale AVIAMM dell’Aeronautica Militare)
5. Training in applied meteorology (Marina Baldi, WMO Regional Training Center in Italy/IBE-CNR)
6. MOLOCH: a CNR operational model for Europe (Oxana Drofa, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate-CNR)
7. MOLOCH West Africa (Francesco Pasi, LaMMA/IBE-CNR)
8. WRF verification in Niger and Burkina Faso (T. Bere / Y. Adamou Sayri – IBE-CNR/ANAM/DMN)
9. A Review of Recent Advances in AI Models for Weather Forecasting (Valerio Capecchi – LaMMA and ItaliaMeteo)
10. Forecasting, thresholds, and triggers for droughts in Mozambique (Massimiliano Pasqui, IBE-CNR)
11. International cooperation at Italia Meteo: Albatros project (Eva Merloni, Agenzia ItaliaMeteo)

The post Weather Forecasting and Climate Cooperation between Italy and Africa: Strengthening Early Warning and Resilience in the Sahel appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

A la station hydrométrique du Niger à Niamey, le débit maximum mensuel de 2133 m³/s (hauteur d’eau 632 cm) a été observé le 13 et 16 septembre 2024 dépassant ainsi le seuil d’alerte rouge fixé à 620 cm. Le minimum de 1456 m³/s (hauteur d’eau 532 cm) a été observé le 05 septembre 2024. Le débit moyen mensuel au cours de ce mois de septembre est de 1889 m³/s correspondant à un volume moyen écoulé de 4,896 milliards de m³, contre 1320 m³/s (volume écoulé 3,420 milliards de m³) sur la même période l’année passée en 2023, 1865 m³/s (volume écoulé 4,834 milliards de m³) l’année humide 2012 et 2239 m³/s (volume écoulé 5,803 milliards de m³) l’année humide 2020.

A partir du 13 septembre 2024, plusieurs ondes de crues ont été signalées avec des hauteurs d’eau qui ont dépassé le seuil critique dit « seuil d’alerte rouge fixée à 620 cm pour un débit de 2 046 m³/s ». Ce niveau de seuil, faut-il le rappeler, a une menace directe sur la sécurité des personnes et des biens.

L’analyse des hydrogrammes des débits montre également que celui de cette année est globalement au-dessus de celui de l’année passée, de la moyenne décennale (2014-2023) et de l’année humide 2012.  Il reste également au-dessus de celui de l’année humide 2020 dans la deuxième moitié de la troisième décade (Figures 1).

Pour plus d’informations consultez le bulletin hydrologique du mois de septembre 2024 (Bulletin Hydrologique_Mensuel_Septembre_2024)

Pour consulter le débit du Fleuve Niger à Niamey et de la Sirba à Garbey Kourou consultez la plateforme SLAPIS à slapis-niger.org

The post Situation hydrologique du fleuve Niger à Niamey au mois de septembre 2024 appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

Pour le suivi en temps réel du débit du Fleuve Niger à Niamey visitez la plateforme SLAPIS (www.slapis-niger.org).

La plateforme SLAPIS, developpée dans le cadre du projet ANADIA2 est desormais gerée dans le cadre du nouveau projet SLAPIS Sahel.

The post Remontée du Fleuve Niger à Niamey le 11 septembre 2024 appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

A la station hydrométrique du Niger à Niamey, le débit maximum mensuel de 2438 m3/s (hauteur d’eau 672 cm) a été observé le 21 aout 2024 et le minimum de 801 m3/s (hauteur d’eau 411 cm) le 03 août 2024. Le débit moyen mensuel observé au cours de ce mois d’août est de 1567 m3/s correspondant à un volume moyen écoulé de 4,20 milliards de m3, contre 995 m3/s (volume écoulé 2,67 milliards de m3) l’année passée en 2023, 1724 m3/s (volume écoulé 4,62 milliards de m3) l’année humide 2012 et 1988 m3/s (volume écoulé 5,33 milliards de m3) l’année humide 2020. Les hauteurs d’eau observées à Niamey ont atteint et dépassé le seuil critique dit « seuil d’alerte rouge fixée à 620 cm pour un débit de 2 046 m3/s » le 19 août 2024 à 23 heures. L’analyse des hydrogrammes des débits (cf. figure n°2 ci-dessous) montre également que celui de cette année est au-dessus de celui de l’année passée et de la moyenne décennale (2014-2023). Toutefois, il reste légèrement en dessous de ceux des années humides 2012 et 2020.

Pour plus d’informations vous pouvez lire le Bulletin Hydrologique de la DGH/DRE du mois d’Aout 2024

The post Crue du Fleuve Niger dans le mois d’Août 2024 appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

IBE-CNR was represented by a group of researchers from Florence and Rome, who participated in the side events and contributed to the sessions:

ES1.7 Co-development of weather and climate services in developing and emerging countries:

• Vieri Tarchiani and Maurizio Bacci, The added value of the co-production process delivering climate services in Niger (view presentation)

ES2.1 Communication and media:

• Vieri Tarchiani and Sebastian Grey, Challenges and opportunities to communicate agrometeorological information for smallholder farmers in developing countries (view presentation)

• Valentina Grasso, Giulio Betti, Claudio Tei, and Bernardo Gozzini Enhancing Weather Communication: The Power of Live Streaming and Collaboration (view presentation)

OSA2.2 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology :

• Marina Baldi and Dino Biancolini, Effects of climate change on wild pollinators: the case of butterflies in Central Italy (view presentation)

UP3.2 Mid-latitude atmospheric teleconnection dynamics:

• Giovanni Dalu and Marina Baldi, Marine air particle trajectories into the Asia-Africa monsoonal system (view presentation)

ES2.1 Communication and media session on Wed, 04 September, Room Paranimf, University of Barcelona

The post EMS 2024: The role of weather and climate research in the achievement of a climate-neutral Europe. appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.