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Metodi di Machine Learning per calcolare le climatologie della rete Meteonetwork partendo da dati incompleti

Il monitoraggio climatico è vitale per un Paese come l’Italia, fortemente esposto a eventi estremi quali alluvioni e ondate di calore. Per un’analisi statisticamente rilevante, l’Organizzazione Meteorologica Mondiale (WMO) raccomanda l’utilizzo di serie storiche ininterrotte di almeno 30 anni, requisiti difficili da soddisfare con reti amatoriali come quella di Meteonetwork, caratterizzata da un periodo di attività relativamente breve (dal 2004), densità variabile e frequenti gap osservativi. In questa presentazione dimostreremo come, integrando tecniche di Machine Learning e dati di rianalisi come proxy, sia possibile ricostruire con errori minimi i campi di temperatura e precipitazione su interi periodi climatologici, anche per stazioni con pochi anni di storico. Tale metodologia è attualmente operativa sul sito di Meteonetwork per il calcolo delle anomalie termiche e pluviometriche su diverse scale temporali (decadali, mensili, stagionali e annuali).

Guido Cioni, laureato in Fisica con specializzazione in Fisica dell’Atmosfera e Meteorologia presso l’Università di Bologna, è un esperto di modellistica numerica ad alta risoluzione. Dopo aver studiato i cicloni mediterranei e i feedback suolo-atmosfera, ha condotto ricerche di dottorato e post-dottorato al Max Planck Institute di Amburgo, sviluppando simulazioni LES fino a 125 metri sul territorio tedesco. Dal 2019 lavora in Airbus come specialista di dati meteo per l’aviazione, focalizzandosi sulla simulazione delle scie di condensa e del loro impatto radiativo. Dal 2021 collabora come volontario con Meteonetwork nell’elaborazione di dati climatologici e, nel tempo libero, si occupa di divulgazione scientifica su clima e aviazione tramite la sua newsletter https://guidocioni.substack.com.

The post Metodi di Machine Learning per calcolare le climatologie della rete Meteonetwork partendo da dati incompleti appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

Following the training, the participants created and published an installation manual on GitHub, accompanied by an automated installation script for WRF (v4.7.1) and MOLOCH. The manual and script are available free of charge at the following links:

WRF slapis-git/install-wrf-home

MOLOCH slapis-git/install-moloch-home

The post Installation kit WRF and MOLOCH appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

MOLOCH is a non-hydrostatic regional model developed by CNR-ISAC (Italy). It enables the production of very high spatial resolution forecasts and explicitly represents convective phenomena. The model solves the non-hydrostatic and fully compressible equations of the atmosphere, with a horizontal resolution of up to 0.0113° (1.25 km), 60 atmospheric levels, and 13 ground levels.

It was in this context that a training seminar was organized from November 3 to 7, 2025, in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, for the benefit of weather forecasting and modeling experts from ANAM in Burkina Faso. This training aimed to ensure a transfer of skills between the various stakeholders (Burkina Faso, Niger, Italy) for the management and operation of the MOLOCH model. 15 experts attended the seminar, which was followed by a two month period of post-training activities. The main outcome of this seminar was the installation of a MOLOCH-based forecasting chain on ANAM servers. The chain consists of a 3k resolution model nested onto a 9 km model initialized with GFS forecasts. The chain is being actually tested before becoming operational.

The post Transfert of MOLOCH model to ANAM Burkina Faso appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

For many developing-country NMSs without internal training facilities, advanced capacity development often relies on short, intensive courses lasting one or two weeks and focused on specific techniques or tools. While these courses can improve knowledge and technical skills, they rarely lead to a meaningful increase in competence—which requires the sustained application of methods and tools within real operational environments.

In line with this principle, one of the most effective approaches to building lasting competence is to embed trainees within an operational team for a sufficiently long period. This allows them to acquire not only technical knowledge but also hands-on operational experience and an understanding of the team’s working practices.

During the joint CALMET XVI and CONEC T 3 conference held in Florence, Italy, on 24–28 November 2025, a panel session presented the collaborative experience between the Meteorological Service of the Tuscany Region (LaMMA, Italy), the National Meteorological Services of Niger (DMN) and Burkina Faso (ANAM), supported by the National Research Council of Italy (CNR) through the Institute of BioEconomy (IBE) and the WMO Regional Training Center in Italy.

With the facilitation of Mr. Stephen Kerr (Meteorological Service of Canada), the panelists illustrated how, within the Slapis Sahel project, the WMO Regional Training Center in Italy designed and implemented a blended and integrated training programme aimed at strengthening the competencies of the NMSs of Niger and Burkina Faso. The objective was to enable local forecasters, modelers and IT specialists to operationalize regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) chains in support of hydrometeorological early warning systems.

The cornerstone of this programme was the embedding of two modelers from the African partner institutions into the IBE–LaMMA operational team for more than a year. Working closely with Italian researchers and forecasters, they acquired not only technical knowledge and skills but also operational experience and competence in running and maintaining NWP systems. This training strategy is fully aligned with the WMO Competency Framework for Public Weather Service Forecasters and Advisers.

The panelists discussed both the results and the challenges of this approach, highlighting its mutual benefits for African and Italian institutions. They also outlined the conditions needed to ensure the sustainability and replicability of embedding trainees within operational teams, including institutional commitment, technical readiness and individual motivation.

The Panlelists; from left to right: Vieri Tarchiani, Bernardo Gozzini, Valerio Capecchi, Rakiswende Thomas Bere, Younoussa Adamou Sayri and Stephen Kerr.

The post From Training to Transformation: Co-Developing Forecasting Capacities for Early Warning in West Africa appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

The mission built on technical discussions held earlier in April 2025 in Niamey and Ouagadougou, during which the first validation results of the WRF model were presented and opportunities for improving forecasting tools were explored. A dedicated online seminar on 19 May 2025 further introduced MOLOCH’s potential and led to the definition of a roadmap for testing and transferring the operational chain to the Agence Nationale de la Météorologie (ANAM) of Burkina Faso and Niger’s Direction Nationale de la Météorologie (DNM).

During the five-day “learning by doing” training, ANAM experts received hands-on knowledge on the installation, configuration, and initial testing of the MOLOCH model. Participants worked on domain setup, simulation tests, model management, post-processing procedures, and the generation of operational forecast products. A field visit and several technical sessions further supported collaborative learning and problem-solving.

Delivered by specialists from IBE-CNR and the LaMMA Consortium—together with experts from DNM and ANAM—this mission marked an important step toward enhancing local forecasting capacities and improving severe-weather early-warning services across the Sahel.

In addition, on Friday, during LaMMA’s regular weekly forecast livestream, a live connection was made with the two LaMMA forecasters and Thomas Bere (ANAM) presented the weekly weather bulletin for Burkina Faso from the weather–media room of the Burkina Faso Meteorological Service (minute 12:45).

The post LaMMA and IBE-CNR with ANAM Burkina Faso for the Transfer of MOLOCH Model appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

Under the coordination of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR), through its Institute for BioEconomy (CNR-IBE), and the LaMMA Consortium — the operational meteorological service of the Tuscany Region — an international meeting titled “International Cooperation in Applied Meteorology for Reducing Hydroclimatic Risks” has been held in Florence, Italy, on 14 October 2025. The event brings together representatives of Italian and African meteorological services, researchers, international organizations, and cooperation agencies to share experiences, consolidate partnerships, and discuss future directions for operational forecasting in the region.

As highlighted by CNR, “Climate change and natural disasters represent a common challenge at all latitudes.” This shared challenge requires joint scientific action, capacity building, and knowledge exchange. For more than forty years, CNR has been engaged in research, technology transfer and training  — through the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Training Centre in Italy (WMO-RTC Italy) — in Africa promoting collaboration and co-development in meteorology, climatology, and agrometeorology.

The Florence meeting showcases this long-standing cooperation, particularly through projects such as SLAPIS Sahel, funded by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS) and implemented by the Politecnico di Torino, CNR-IBE, LaMMA, and the national meteorological services of Niger and Burkina Faso. The initiative focuses on improving operational meteorological forecasting chains and developing hydrometeorological early-warning services adapted to local contexts. It also invests in human capacity — training African forecasters, modellers, and IT specialists both in Italy and in their home countries — to ensure that advanced tools like the MOLOCH and WRF models can be effectively used for real-time weather prediction.

Beyond its scientific dimension, the event symbolizes a broader vision of international cooperation: building resilience together, across continents, through shared knowledge and trust. It includes the signing of new collaboration agreements between the Italian and African institutions, reaffirming the commitment to long-term partnerships that go beyond project cycles.

As LaMMA emphasizes, “operational meteorology and international cooperation go hand in hand when it comes to protecting lives and livelihoods.” By pooling expertise and resources, Italy, Niger and Burkina Faso are contributing to a global effort to make meteorological services more accurate, inclusive, and impactful.

At a time when climate extremes are increasing everywhere, initiatives like this one highlight how joint scientific collaboration can turn forecasting into foresight — and foresight into resilience.

Links

https://www.cnr.it/it/evento/20145 : CNR – Previsione meteorologica per la riduzione dei rischi naturali nel Sahel: la cooperazione scientifica Italia-Africa

https://www.cnr.it/it/news/13836/cambiamenti-climatici-e-disastri-naturali-una-sfida-comune-a-tutte-le-latitudini : CNR – Cambiamenti climatici e disastri naturali una sfida comune a tutte le latitudini

https://www.lamma.toscana.it/news/previsione-meteo-e-riduzione-dei-rischi-sahel-la-cooperazione-italia-africa : LaMMA – Cooperazione internazionale e meteorologia operativa: a Firenze una giornata di confronto

Presentations

1. Weather forecasting and climate risk reduction in dry tropical Africa (Vieri Tarchiani, IBE-CNR)
2. State of the art and applications of NWP in Burkina Faso (Lazare Sawadogo, ANAM)
3. Towards autonomy for Niger’s Meteorological Service in the production of climate services based on NWP (Ousman Baoua, DMN)
4. Training activities on meteorology and climatology hosted by the Italian Air Force (Antonio Vocino, Sezione Cooperazione Internazionale dell’Ufficio Generale AVIAMM dell’Aeronautica Militare)
5. Training in applied meteorology (Marina Baldi, WMO Regional Training Center in Italy/IBE-CNR)
6. MOLOCH: a CNR operational model for Europe (Oxana Drofa, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate-CNR)
7. MOLOCH West Africa (Francesco Pasi, LaMMA/IBE-CNR)
8. WRF verification in Niger and Burkina Faso (T. Bere / Y. Adamou Sayri – IBE-CNR/ANAM/DMN)
9. A Review of Recent Advances in AI Models for Weather Forecasting (Valerio Capecchi – LaMMA and ItaliaMeteo)
10. Forecasting, thresholds, and triggers for droughts in Mozambique (Massimiliano Pasqui, IBE-CNR)
11. International cooperation at Italia Meteo: Albatros project (Eva Merloni, Agenzia ItaliaMeteo)

The post Weather Forecasting and Climate Cooperation between Italy and Africa: Strengthening Early Warning and Resilience in the Sahel appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has launched a new self-paced online course to help practitioners enhance their communication strategies.
Because communication is not an add-on — it is a core component of effective agrometeorological services. When communication fails, information may arrive too late, be misunderstood, or simply not be used at all.

This course is designed for agrometeorologists, extension agents, climate service providers, and anyone working with farmers and rural communities to co-produce and deliver climate information that matters.

The training includes 6 structured lessons (approx. 2 hours total) and offers a WMO digital badge upon successful completion.

Whether you’re in the field or shaping policy, this course offers practical guidance to help you deliver climate information that is timely, relevant, and usable.

Start the course here

The post New WMO Online Course: Communicating Agrometeorological Information appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

The final two days (27 and 28 November 2025) will be dedicated to the Third plenary meeting of the Consortium of WMO Education and Training Collaborating Partners (CONECT-3), which will focus on strengthening coordination and sustainability in capacity development efforts.

Call for Contributions is open until 29 August 2025
Submit your contribution via the following link: https://forms.office.com/e/AQN3xFmfLN

Registration is open!
All participants have to complete the registration via the following link:
https://forms.office.com/e/g2Ypp2PzKz

Registration deadlines
– In-person attendance (Florence, Italy): Register by 15 September 2025
– Online participation: Register by 10 November 2025

See more information at the Third Announcement.
Those planning to attend in-person can refer to the Information Note for In-Person Participants for practical details regarding venue, accommodation, logistics and visa arrangement.
More information and questions: organizers@calmet.org

The post Joint CALMet-XVI and CONECT-3, 24-28 November 2025 appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

 The Human Side of Climate Risk

While meteorologists and hydrologists excel at predicting when and where floods will strike, there’s a crucial piece of the puzzle that’s often overlooked: how communities actually experience, understand, and respond to these threats. This is where sociology steps in, offering game-changing insights that can make the difference between effective disaster management and tragic outcomes.

Real-World Solutions from Spain

The University of Alicante has a research team dedicated to these topics. Among the leading names is Guadalupe Ortiz, who recently held a seminar at the CNR IBE in Sesto Fiorentino, presenting their research activities and main results. The team has developed practical tools that put people at the center of flood risk management. Here’s what they’ve discovered from their recent projects:

1. Decoding Crisis Communication

The team analyzed 112 emergency calls during a severe flood event in Spain, uncovering critical patterns in how people communicate during disasters. This research reveals what actually works in crisis communication – and what doesn’t.

2. Mapping Social Impact and Community Strength

Not all communities are equally vulnerable to floods. The researchers have developed connections between social impacts and social capacities, creating a self-assessment tool that helps local risk managers understand their community’s unique strengths and vulnerabilities.

3. Building Resilient Communities

The team has created a model for designing and evaluating programs that build social capacity – helping communities prepare for, respond to, and adapt to flood risks more effectively.

Why This Matters for Climate Services

Integrating social science into hydrometeorological risk management isn’t just academic theory – it’s about creating more equitable and effective interventions. When we understand the human dimensions of climate risk, we can:

– Design communication strategies that actually reach and resonate with at-risk communities
– Identify which neighbourhoods need the most support before disasters strike
– Build long-term resilience that goes beyond technical solutions

The future of climate services isn’t just about better predictions – it’s about better understanding the communities we serve.

Watch the Webinar

The post Why Understanding People is Key to Managing Flood Risk appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.

We close this inspiring edition with a lecture by Francesco Ferrini (University of Florence): “Urban Forestry vs. Urban Heat: Reclaiming the Micro-Climate for Livable Cities.”
Rethinking the city for a climate-challenged future!

Thank you to all participants for making this edition truly special!

The post Agromet School 2025 – Last day appeared first on climateservices.it CNR-IBE.