MOLOCH is a non-hydrostatic regional model developed by CNR-ISAC (Italy). It enables the production of very high spatial resolution forecasts and explicitly represents convective phenomena. The model solves the non-hydrostatic and fully compressible equations of the atmosphere, with a horizontal resolution of up to 0.0113° (1.25 km), 60 atmospheric levels, and 13 ground levels.

It was in this context that a training seminar was organized from November 3 to 7, 2025, in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, for the benefit of weather forecasting and modeling experts from ANAM in Burkina Faso. This training aimed to ensure a transfer of skills between the various stakeholders (Burkina Faso, Niger, Italy) for the management and operation of the MOLOCH model. 15 experts attended the seminar, which was followed by a two month period of post-training activities. The main outcome of this seminar was the installation of a MOLOCH-based forecasting chain on ANAM servers. The chain consists of a 3k resolution model nested onto a 9 km model initialized with GFS forecasts. The chain is being actually tested before becoming operational.

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For many developing-country NMSs without internal training facilities, advanced capacity development often relies on short, intensive courses lasting one or two weeks and focused on specific techniques or tools. While these courses can improve knowledge and technical skills, they rarely lead to a meaningful increase in competence—which requires the sustained application of methods and tools within real operational environments.

In line with this principle, one of the most effective approaches to building lasting competence is to embed trainees within an operational team for a sufficiently long period. This allows them to acquire not only technical knowledge but also hands-on operational experience and an understanding of the team’s working practices.

During the joint CALMET XVI and CONEC T 3 conference held in Florence, Italy, on 24–28 November 2025, a panel session presented the collaborative experience between the Meteorological Service of the Tuscany Region (LaMMA, Italy), the National Meteorological Services of Niger (DMN) and Burkina Faso (ANAM), supported by the National Research Council of Italy (CNR) through the Institute of BioEconomy (IBE) and the WMO Regional Training Center in Italy.

With the facilitation of Mr. Stephen Kerr (Meteorological Service of Canada), the panelists illustrated how, within the Slapis Sahel project, the WMO Regional Training Center in Italy designed and implemented a blended and integrated training programme aimed at strengthening the competencies of the NMSs of Niger and Burkina Faso. The objective was to enable local forecasters, modelers and IT specialists to operationalize regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) chains in support of hydrometeorological early warning systems.

The cornerstone of this programme was the embedding of two modelers from the African partner institutions into the IBE–LaMMA operational team for more than a year. Working closely with Italian researchers and forecasters, they acquired not only technical knowledge and skills but also operational experience and competence in running and maintaining NWP systems. This training strategy is fully aligned with the WMO Competency Framework for Public Weather Service Forecasters and Advisers.

The panelists discussed both the results and the challenges of this approach, highlighting its mutual benefits for African and Italian institutions. They also outlined the conditions needed to ensure the sustainability and replicability of embedding trainees within operational teams, including institutional commitment, technical readiness and individual motivation.

The Panlelists; from left to right: Vieri Tarchiani, Bernardo Gozzini, Valerio Capecchi, Rakiswende Thomas Bere, Younoussa Adamou Sayri and Stephen Kerr.

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The mission built on technical discussions held earlier in April 2025 in Niamey and Ouagadougou, during which the first validation results of the WRF model were presented and opportunities for improving forecasting tools were explored. A dedicated online seminar on 19 May 2025 further introduced MOLOCH’s potential and led to the definition of a roadmap for testing and transferring the operational chain to the Agence Nationale de la Météorologie (ANAM) of Burkina Faso and Niger’s Direction Nationale de la Météorologie (DNM).

During the five-day “learning by doing” training, ANAM experts received hands-on knowledge on the installation, configuration, and initial testing of the MOLOCH model. Participants worked on domain setup, simulation tests, model management, post-processing procedures, and the generation of operational forecast products. A field visit and several technical sessions further supported collaborative learning and problem-solving.

Delivered by specialists from IBE-CNR and the LaMMA Consortium—together with experts from DNM and ANAM—this mission marked an important step toward enhancing local forecasting capacities and improving severe-weather early-warning services across the Sahel.

In addition, on Friday, during LaMMA’s regular weekly forecast livestream, a live connection was made with the two LaMMA forecasters and Thomas Bere (ANAM) presented the weekly weather bulletin for Burkina Faso from the weather–media room of the Burkina Faso Meteorological Service (minute 12:45).

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Under the coordination of the National Research Council of Italy (CNR), through its Institute for BioEconomy (CNR-IBE), and the LaMMA Consortium — the operational meteorological service of the Tuscany Region — an international meeting titled “International Cooperation in Applied Meteorology for Reducing Hydroclimatic Risks” has been held in Florence, Italy, on 14 October 2025. The event brings together representatives of Italian and African meteorological services, researchers, international organizations, and cooperation agencies to share experiences, consolidate partnerships, and discuss future directions for operational forecasting in the region.

As highlighted by CNR, “Climate change and natural disasters represent a common challenge at all latitudes.” This shared challenge requires joint scientific action, capacity building, and knowledge exchange. For more than forty years, CNR has been engaged in research, technology transfer and training  — through the World Meteorological Organization’s Regional Training Centre in Italy (WMO-RTC Italy) — in Africa promoting collaboration and co-development in meteorology, climatology, and agrometeorology.

The Florence meeting showcases this long-standing cooperation, particularly through projects such as SLAPIS Sahel, funded by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS) and implemented by the Politecnico di Torino, CNR-IBE, LaMMA, and the national meteorological services of Niger and Burkina Faso. The initiative focuses on improving operational meteorological forecasting chains and developing hydrometeorological early-warning services adapted to local contexts. It also invests in human capacity — training African forecasters, modellers, and IT specialists both in Italy and in their home countries — to ensure that advanced tools like the MOLOCH and WRF models can be effectively used for real-time weather prediction.

Beyond its scientific dimension, the event symbolizes a broader vision of international cooperation: building resilience together, across continents, through shared knowledge and trust. It includes the signing of new collaboration agreements between the Italian and African institutions, reaffirming the commitment to long-term partnerships that go beyond project cycles.

As LaMMA emphasizes, “operational meteorology and international cooperation go hand in hand when it comes to protecting lives and livelihoods.” By pooling expertise and resources, Italy, Niger and Burkina Faso are contributing to a global effort to make meteorological services more accurate, inclusive, and impactful.

At a time when climate extremes are increasing everywhere, initiatives like this one highlight how joint scientific collaboration can turn forecasting into foresight — and foresight into resilience.

Links

https://www.cnr.it/it/evento/20145 : CNR – Previsione meteorologica per la riduzione dei rischi naturali nel Sahel: la cooperazione scientifica Italia-Africa

https://www.cnr.it/it/news/13836/cambiamenti-climatici-e-disastri-naturali-una-sfida-comune-a-tutte-le-latitudini : CNR – Cambiamenti climatici e disastri naturali una sfida comune a tutte le latitudini

https://www.lamma.toscana.it/news/previsione-meteo-e-riduzione-dei-rischi-sahel-la-cooperazione-italia-africa : LaMMA – Cooperazione internazionale e meteorologia operativa: a Firenze una giornata di confronto

Presentations

1. Weather forecasting and climate risk reduction in dry tropical Africa (Vieri Tarchiani, IBE-CNR)
2. State of the art and applications of NWP in Burkina Faso (Lazare Sawadogo, ANAM)
3. Towards autonomy for Niger’s Meteorological Service in the production of climate services based on NWP (Ousman Baoua, DMN)
4. Training activities on meteorology and climatology hosted by the Italian Air Force (Antonio Vocino, Sezione Cooperazione Internazionale dell’Ufficio Generale AVIAMM dell’Aeronautica Militare)
5. Training in applied meteorology (Marina Baldi, WMO Regional Training Center in Italy/IBE-CNR)
6. MOLOCH: a CNR operational model for Europe (Oxana Drofa, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate-CNR)
7. MOLOCH West Africa (Francesco Pasi, LaMMA/IBE-CNR)
8. WRF verification in Niger and Burkina Faso (T. Bere / Y. Adamou Sayri – IBE-CNR/ANAM/DMN)
9. A Review of Recent Advances in AI Models for Weather Forecasting (Valerio Capecchi – LaMMA and ItaliaMeteo)
10. Forecasting, thresholds, and triggers for droughts in Mozambique (Massimiliano Pasqui, IBE-CNR)
11. International cooperation at Italia Meteo: Albatros project (Eva Merloni, Agenzia ItaliaMeteo)

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 The Human Side of Climate Risk

While meteorologists and hydrologists excel at predicting when and where floods will strike, there’s a crucial piece of the puzzle that’s often overlooked: how communities actually experience, understand, and respond to these threats. This is where sociology steps in, offering game-changing insights that can make the difference between effective disaster management and tragic outcomes.

Real-World Solutions from Spain

The University of Alicante has a research team dedicated to these topics. Among the leading names is Guadalupe Ortiz, who recently held a seminar at the CNR IBE in Sesto Fiorentino, presenting their research activities and main results. The team has developed practical tools that put people at the center of flood risk management. Here’s what they’ve discovered from their recent projects:

1. Decoding Crisis Communication

The team analyzed 112 emergency calls during a severe flood event in Spain, uncovering critical patterns in how people communicate during disasters. This research reveals what actually works in crisis communication – and what doesn’t.

2. Mapping Social Impact and Community Strength

Not all communities are equally vulnerable to floods. The researchers have developed connections between social impacts and social capacities, creating a self-assessment tool that helps local risk managers understand their community’s unique strengths and vulnerabilities.

3. Building Resilient Communities

The team has created a model for designing and evaluating programs that build social capacity – helping communities prepare for, respond to, and adapt to flood risks more effectively.

Why This Matters for Climate Services

Integrating social science into hydrometeorological risk management isn’t just academic theory – it’s about creating more equitable and effective interventions. When we understand the human dimensions of climate risk, we can:

– Design communication strategies that actually reach and resonate with at-risk communities
– Identify which neighbourhoods need the most support before disasters strike
– Build long-term resilience that goes beyond technical solutions

The future of climate services isn’t just about better predictions – it’s about better understanding the communities we serve.

Watch the Webinar

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A la station hydrométrique du Niger à Niamey, le débit maximum mensuel de 2133 m³/s (hauteur d’eau 632 cm) a été observé le 13 et 16 septembre 2024 dépassant ainsi le seuil d’alerte rouge fixé à 620 cm. Le minimum de 1456 m³/s (hauteur d’eau 532 cm) a été observé le 05 septembre 2024. Le débit moyen mensuel au cours de ce mois de septembre est de 1889 m³/s correspondant à un volume moyen écoulé de 4,896 milliards de m³, contre 1320 m³/s (volume écoulé 3,420 milliards de m³) sur la même période l’année passée en 2023, 1865 m³/s (volume écoulé 4,834 milliards de m³) l’année humide 2012 et 2239 m³/s (volume écoulé 5,803 milliards de m³) l’année humide 2020.

A partir du 13 septembre 2024, plusieurs ondes de crues ont été signalées avec des hauteurs d’eau qui ont dépassé le seuil critique dit « seuil d’alerte rouge fixée à 620 cm pour un débit de 2 046 m³/s ». Ce niveau de seuil, faut-il le rappeler, a une menace directe sur la sécurité des personnes et des biens.

L’analyse des hydrogrammes des débits montre également que celui de cette année est globalement au-dessus de celui de l’année passée, de la moyenne décennale (2014-2023) et de l’année humide 2012.  Il reste également au-dessus de celui de l’année humide 2020 dans la deuxième moitié de la troisième décade (Figures 1).

Pour plus d’informations consultez le bulletin hydrologique du mois de septembre 2024 (Bulletin Hydrologique_Mensuel_Septembre_2024)

Pour consulter le débit du Fleuve Niger à Niamey et de la Sirba à Garbey Kourou consultez la plateforme SLAPIS à slapis-niger.org

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To address this challenge, the governments of Niger and Burkina Faso prompted to extend the Flood Early Warning System (SLAPIS), developed and tested on the Niger section of the Sirba River as part of the ANADIA2 project.

Who will implement the project?

The SLAPIS Sahel project is jointly formulated by stakeholders from both countries, with the support of the Italian partners of ANADIA2. The project aims to reduce the risk of flooding and adapt to climate change for the most vulnerable populations living along the Sirba and the other tributaries in Niger and Burkina Faso.

The Interuniversity Department of Science, Planning, and Territorial Policies (DIST) of the Politecnico di Torino will carry out the project in collaboration with the Istituto per la Bioeconomia del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (IBE-CNR), the Direction de la Météorologie Nationale (DMN), and the Direction de l’Hydrologie (DH) of Niger and the Agence Nationale de la Météorologie (ANAM) and the Direction des Etudes et de l’Information sur l’Eau (DEIE) of Burkina Faso.

The project is co-financed by the AICS, Agenzia Italiana per la cooperazione allo sviluppo.

Project Objective

SLAPIS Sahel is an important project that will help vulnerable communities in Niger and Burkina Faso manage the risks associated with flooding and other extreme hydrometeorological phenomena.

The broad objective of the SLAPIS Sahel project is to reduce hydro-meteorological risk and support adaptation to climate change. Its specific aim is to strengthen the skills and capacities of the National Hydrometeorological Services of Burkina Faso and Niger by consolidating cross-border cooperation and reinforcing collaboration between the different administrative levels in each country. These actions are crucial to increase resilience towards floods and other extreme hydrometeorological phenomena.

The initiative’s objectives and expected results align with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. Its implementation will contribute significantly to the countries’ sectoral strategies, ultimately leading to sustainable development in the region.

Read More»

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Cette crue a atteint et a dépassé les côtes d’alerte jaune (530 cm pour un débit de 1444 m3/s le 20 novembre) et orange (580 cm pour un débit de 1766 m3/s le 29 décembre) avant d’amorcer une descente. La décrue se poursuit lentement, avec un niveau de 567 cm le 16 janvier 2023.

Le volume d’eau transité à la station de Niamey sur la période allant du 1er juin 2022 au 16 janvier 2023 a été de 22,3 milliards de m3, supérieur de celui observé l’année passée 2021 qui était de 19,4 milliards de m3 sur la même période. Ces volumes d’eau transités seront à mesure de satisfaire les besoins des différents usagers.

Pour plus d’information voyez le Bulletin hydrologique au 16-01-2023_Crue Guinéenne & celle de la Komadougou Yobé préparé par la Direction de l’Hydrologie du Niger.

Pour suivre en temps réel le niveau et le débit di Fleuve Niger à la station hydrométrique de Niamey visitez la plateforme SLAPIS (www.slapis-niger.org)

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