General Situation
According to Copernicus data, January 2025 was the warmest January globally on record since 1979, compared to the 1991-2020 reference period. At the European level, this month ranks second, following January 2020. Mediterranean surface temperatures remained above average, as did those in much of the central and northeastern Atlantic. Precipitation was below average across most of central-western Europe, central-southern Great Britain, Scandinavia, and northern and southern Italy. Over the long term (12 months), severe-extreme drought affects central-eastern European countries, with an increasing percentage moving eastward.
Snowfall contributions, in terms of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), show different trends depending on the geographic area, with a recovery in the Alps compared to last season, but still scarce snowfall in the Apennines. However, overall, there remains a 58% deficit compared to the 2011-2023 median (CIMA Foundation).
Reservoirs in Sardinia, Sicily, and Apulia (Capitanata) contain 3% to 15% less water than in the same period in 2023, while Basilicata shows a slight increase of 1% (see graph).
Regarding the large lakes of northern Italy, as of February 10, 2025, they all show filling levels well above average, mainly due to rainfall between late January and early February.
Hydroelectric energy production in Sicily during the week of January 27 to February 2 saw a significant increase compared to the previous year, as well as compared to other years such as 2023, 2021, and 2018.
Forecast for the Coming Months
Regarding air temperatures for the March-May 2025 quarter, data from major European medium-range forecasting centers indicate above-average values across all of Europe, with a probability ranging from 60% to 100%. Mediterranean sea surface temperatures are also expected to remain above average throughout the quarter, with a probability of 70%-100%.
As for precipitation, forecasts indicate above-average values over parts of Scandinavia. Across the rest of the continent, values are expected to remain at average levels or, with a probability between 40% and 50%, below average.
