The Monthly Bulletin produced by droughtcentral.it
General Situation
According to Copernicus data, September 2024 was the second hottest September on record globally since 1979, following closely behind September 2023, based on the 1991-2020 reference period. However, it is crucial to consider these records in the broader context of a consistent increase in global temperatures. At the European level, temperature anomalies were generally positive, particularly in eastern continental areas, whereas negative anomalies affected much of western Atlantic Europe, including Ireland, Great Britain, and the Alps. Temperatures in both the Mediterranean and the Atlantic also remain significantly above average.
Rainfall has been above average in the south-east and central areas of Europe, as well as parts of the Iberian Peninsula and the south of the United Kingdom. During the middle of the month, Storm Boris had a major impact, causing widespread flooding across central-eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania, regions already dealing with the effects of prolonged and intense drought. In contrast, parts of Portugal, central and southern Spain, southern Italy, and northern Great Britain recorded rainfall below normal levels.
As of 16 October, the large lakes in northern Italy remain above average levels. Lake Maggiore, after declining at the start of September, has now stabilised around the seasonal average.
The reservoirs in Puglia, Basilicata, Sicily, and Sardinia continue to show significantly reduced water levels, particularly those in Sicily, Basilicata, and Puglia. Hydroelectric power production in northern Italy during the week of 7-13 October was close to the highest levels recorded since 2016. However, conditions in the south were much less favourable, with Sardinia reporting the second-lowest value on record, and Sicily reaching its minimum output.
Forecast for the Coming Months
For the November-January quarter, medium-term forecasts from major European centres indicate above-average air temperatures across Europe, with a probability of 40% to 70%, with the highest likelihood occurring in the Mediterranean region. Surface temperatures of the Mediterranean Sea are also expected to remain above average throughout the quarter, with a probability of 70% to 100%, especially in the central-eastern area. Rainfall forecasts indicate average values across most of Europe, with possible surpluses in Scandinavia and below-average rainfall in parts of the Iberian Peninsula and the western Mediterranean (probability 40-50%).
